In just a few months, Northeast Ohio will become the epicenter of the nation’s increasingly volatile political scene — and experts say incidents of violence on the campaign trail are omens signaling a greater chance of crime during the Republican National Convention.
Nearly 2,500 Republican delegates — and, most likely, many protesters — will descend on Cleveland for the convention, where the GOP will pick its candidate for president. Hotels throughout the region, from Mentor to Westlake to Akron, already are booking up.
Billionaire businessman Donald Trump continues to be the front-runner, but it’s unclear whether he’ll win the 1,237 delegates needed to lock up the nomination on a first ballot vote at the convention, particularly after Gov. John Kasich’s victory last week in Ohio’s winner-take-all primary.
With talk of a “brokered convention,” Trump telling media “I think you’d have riots” if he’s denied the nomination on the floor and a history of violence at his recent rallies, who knows what could happen in Cleveland this summer?
Tom Lekan, a consultant with the Cleveland-based Atlantis Co. security firm, predicts violence.
“When you have to cancel an entire rally, don’t you think that’s a strong signal of what’s to come?” he said.
Lekan was referring to Trump canceling a rally in Chicago on March 11 amid reports of tense confrontations between Trump’s supporters and protesters. Fights between the two groups broke out following the cancellation.
Lekan said the violence at the canceled rally coupled with Trump’s aggressive attitude toward naysayers leads the consultant to predict violence on the horizon.
“You’re going to find an increase in partying. A lot of the bars will be open until 4 in the morning. When they’re only open until 2:30, it causes problems. Imagine how this is going to be,” Lekan said. “When you have situations like this, you’ll have volatility. And when people are getting angry — like we’re seeing now regarding people’s preference toward candidates — you’re going to have an increased risk of violence.”
Cleveland’s police force has opted to up its numbers during the July 18-21 convention, but Lekan said police are only part of the solution. He said businesses shouldn’t wait until the last minute to consider security options.
“Think about a football game. There are 80,000 people in a stadium, but there are hardly ever incidents that you hear about. That’s because the NFL is prepared with their security. When it’s planned, it goes really well,” he said. “We know what’s coming, so we should prepare. Why wait until it happens to wonder what do we do about it?”
Despite predictions of violence and rumored backroom deals, the Republican Party promises a transparent process.
“The democratic process is playing out across the country and if no one candidate reaches a majority of the delegates there will be an open and transparent process in Cleveland,” said Alee Lockman, a spokesperson for the Committee on Arrangements, which hosts the Republican National Convention.
“Either way, voters are enthusiastic about this process and we will have a safe and productive convention in July,” Lockman said. “Planning to keep the Convention, events and community secure while balancing local impact is well underway. The Secret Service is the lead agency for the National Special Security Event. They are working with local, state and federal partners who together are developing security plans leading up to the national convention.”
The Kasich factor
After Sen. Marco Rubio dropped out of the Republican race last week, only Kasich, Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas remain.
It’s mathematically impossible for Kasich, who trails with 143 delegates, to reach the 1,237 needed to lock up the nomination on a first ballot vote.
Nonetheless, Kasich vowed Tuesday night after winning Ohio, his first victory, that he will stay to the end. His campaign has hired Stu Spencer, who helped Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan on a first ballot at the contested 1976 Republican National Convention.
Nineteen states with 909 unclaimed delegates have yet to hold primary contests. All are primaries, which have fared better for Trump than more deliberative caucuses. And 11 upcoming contests will give delegates on a winner-take-all, or winner-take-most, basis — meaning Trump could pile on his lead rather quickly.
Kasich’s primary goal is now to keep Trump to 1,236 delegates and trigger a brokered convention, said John Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron.
“It does look like Kasich’s real hope to be the nominee is to go beyond the first ballot,” Green said. “He may be an appealing candidate to a lot of party leaders.”
Brokered convention
Before primaries became vogue after 1952, brokered conventions were more commonplace. It took Democrats 102 ballots to pick a nominee in 1924.
Because delegate selection varies from state to state, their allegiance to a candidate can waver. Some are picked by campaigns (as Republicans do in Ohio). Others are selected by the party or the voters (as Democrats are in Ohio).
Green said if there is no majority vote after a first ballot in July, brokering will commence.
“If you think about the word broker as a verb, it really means negotiate,” Green explained.
What will happen, he continued, is deal-making among candidates — who might trade delegates for cabinet positions — or blocks of delegates who answer to business leaders lobbying for a particular policy, which the winning administration would take up after the election.
Green figured Trump has the best shot. But nothing is certain as a noncandidate could become a write-in after pledged delegates are allowed to switch their votes.
“There will be demonstrations on the floor, many speeches, lots of rumor and innuendo going around as several thousand people try to make a decision as to who the nominee will be,” Green said.
Doug Livingston can be reached at 330-996-3792 or dlivingston@thebeaconjournal.com. Follow on Twitter: @ABJDoug. Nick Glunt can be reached at 330-996-3565 or nglunt@thebeaconjournal.com. Follow him on Twitter @NickGluntABJ.